One Guy's Viewpoint

Hurricane Season

Here we are near the end of the first month of this year's hurricane season. And sfsg, so far so good.

Although there have been estimates of numerous named storms this season, equal to or even more than last year, I have been saying that there will be fewer. I believe that this cycle topped out last year and will not approach that number again for a number of years.

Why? Last August I was in an examining room waiting for the doctor to make an appearance when I began looking through an old National Geographic. There was an article in there about the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes. According to the author water temperatures will increase for about fourteen or fifteen years on average, and then cool slowly over a similar amount of time. The total temperature variation is no more than about three degrees, but this can cause a very large difference in the number and intensity of storms in a given year. The article went on to say that we were already fourteen years into the current warming trend. However, it stressed that the period varies considerably. There was, it said, no reason to think the cooling would begin anytime soon. For a doctor's office, this magazine was fairly recent. I don't recall but think it was a 2004 issue.

Anyway, I'm now on record that the cycle is changing. Come December if we've had a much calmer hurricane season than 2005, doubtless I'll mention that fact on the blog. However, if not, I promose to 'fess up to that as well. Unless, of course, I've been washed or blown away.

posted by Burt @ 11:12 AM